18 November 2016
Our forecast last week indicated an expected 67c/l drop for petrol and a 50c/l drop for diesel, both with a margin of error of 13c/l. As we noted, Trump’s presidency spooked the markets and weakened the Rand by about 7%. This move has meant that the current forecast reduction is about 20c/l less than last week’s .
Our current forecast indicates an expected drop in December of 45c/l and 43c/l for petrol and diesel respectively. The margin of error in our forecast has reduced to +/- 8c/l.
Being 60% through the pricing cycle, the effect of moves in the underlying constituents is dampened somewhat, meaning we are increasingly confident of the extent of the December price decreases. As a measure of this confidence, the change in price over 3 standard deviations has reduced from R1.20/l 3 weeks ago to only 50c/l currently
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