We believe it’s better to understand the consequences of all price outcomes across all assets specific to your company, factoring in your risk tolerance, than it is to spend time debating the likelihood of specific price trajectories of assets that are outside your control.
Reducing Executive’s Risk
Executives are constantly making important decisions in their field of expertise, however they occasionally find themselves being called on to participate in decisions that aren’t within their realm of experience. Since they take their responsibilities seriously and are aware of the growing director’s liabilities, these decisions make them feel uncomfortable.
In many market related decisions, the correct decision only becomes clear in hindsight. Even market “experts” can’t guide you reliably in these matters.
We work with you to formalise your decision making process using a tool which generates thousands of scenarios in real-time and presents the outcomes in easy to understand form. This provides you with an unprecedented view of the multiple future paths your company might take and gives you the comfort, that regardless of market direction after a decision has been taken, you had specific reasons to chose the course of action that you did.
Using this approach, your decisions follow as a direct result of prudent risk-management, and don’t rely on a market view.
“Risk management is inseparable from the company’s strategic and business processes.”
King III Principle 4.1
Credentials
Rubicon Risk builds on the 25+ years’ experience in the banking industry of its founder
Jayson worked for a number of local SA banks as well as international banks earlier in his career. These include:
- Standard Bank, as one of the founding members of the Gold Desk in 1992
- Citi in 1996 to set up the local Interest Rate Derivatives business
- RMB/FirstRand as head of the Commodities business for a number of years.
- RMB Resources where he was the resident hedging professional for the global junior mining finance business, spanning Sydney, Melbourne, London, Johannesburg, Denver and New York.
- Standard Chartered Bank as Head of Commodity Sales: Africa.
He has been involved in the design and execution of some of the largest hedges ever executed.
While at RMB and RMB Resources he participated in the execution of many project financing transactions, and the list to the right specifically details those where hedging was included in the debt structure.
Our Offering
Rubicon works with executive teams to give a precise understanding of which combination of risks could threaten the financial health of an organisation. Our approach provides an unparalleled view of the company’s possible future and the effect risk mitigation will have.
By equipping management with the necessary tools, the board/finance committee can have a meaningful discussion about risk management and mitigation that doesn’t hinge on an individual’s views of market factors.
We envisage a relationship with a company with regular feedback sessions. The process would involve a level of customisation to adapt our tools and metrics to better match specific internal processes and standards.
Project financing requires alignment between a large group of interested parties. Rubicon helps with this by removing the subjectivity and opinion that is often present in the analysis of the project.
Specific debt conditions such as cash sweeps, interest holidays and financial hedges can add complexity and their interplay might lead to unintended consequences.
Rubicon’s analysis tools were developed in the Project Finance arena and can identify these consequences. The tools provide unparalleled insight into the performance of a project by detailing its financial performance over tens of thousands of price paths.
Our engagement with you would be an iterative process with multiple feedback sessions over the evolution of the project’s development plan.
Rubicon risk is an attractive consultant, providing an in-depth analysis of projects and their viability over many thousands of scenarios. This analysis is extremely successful at assisting in identifying danger zones in the project’s cashflows.
The methodology excels at comparative analysis, allowing comparison of projects competing for capital. It provides the information necessary to select the asset that best suits your investment criteria and risk appetite.
The analysis tools can also be used to assist in determining which of multiple future development plans has the highest prospect of success or which provides the greatest flexibility in volatile price environments.
Blog and Articles
Petrol price relief likely in June
The Rand strength over the last 2 weeks as well as easing international product prices points to a high likelihood of a price decrease in June, which is likely to be as high as 40c/l for petrol. Read more here: South African Petrol and Diesel Price Forecasts... read moreDespite bruising taxes, consumer will likely see relief at the pumps in April
The much stronger Rand has meant that Petrol consumer will see a price drop at the pump of about 25c/l even after the taxes and levies are factored in. Diesel users are likely to be less fortunate. read here for more: South African Petrol and Diesel Price... read moreReasonable likelihood that petrol price will drop despite tax & levy hikes
As we hinted at last wee, it seems increasingly likely that the petrol price will drop in in excess of the increased taxes an levies imposed in the budget speech. the probability of a drop in the petrol price is near 99% and the expected drop is 52c/l (+/-22c/l). Read... read moreSmall drop in fuel prices in March, increased taxes and levies in April will likely be offset by a price decrease.
There will be a small price drop in both petrol and diesel from March 1. Petrol will drop by 8c/l and diesel by 2c/l. The averaging nature of the formula and the current trend in the Rand mean that already we can forecast a price drop in April with 75% confidence to... read moreSmall drop in fuel price in March, before taxes and levies
The strength of the Rand over the last week has provided some direction as to where fuel prices will go in March. However, our forecast does not factor in taxes and levies which will almost certainly be increased by the Fiance Minister next week, likely eroding... read moreNear Zero Fuel Price Change in March
March Petrol price move as yet unclear, but should be 10c either way at a maximum. read more here: Petrol Price Forecast Press Release... read moreThe jury’s still out when it comes to the March fuel price change
There’s a high level of uncertainty around the March price, but we’re marginally leaning towards a small price rise. Read more in the attached PDF Petrol Price Forecast Press Release... read moreFebruary’s Fuel Price Hike as expected
February’s fuel price adjustments, to be announced later today, are in line with our forecasts over the last 2 weeks. Read more here: Petrol Price Forecast Press Release... read moreRate Your Company’s Decision-Making Ability
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