We believe it’s better to understand the consequences of all price outcomes across all assets specific to your company, factoring in your risk tolerance, than it is to spend time debating the likelihood of specific price trajectories of assets that are outside your control.

The Rubicon in History

In 49 B.C., Julius Caesar led his army to the banks of the Rubicon, a small river that marked the boundary between Italy and Gaul. Caesar knew Roman law forbade a general from leading his army out of the province to which he was assigned. By crossing the Rubicon, he would violate that law. “The die is cast,” he said, wading in.That act of defiance sparked a civil war that left Julius Caesar the ruler of the Roman world. It also inspired English speakers to adopt the popular saying –crossing the Rubicon -centuries later.

We recognise that decisions made in risk management often cannot later be changed and will strongly influence future events.

King Code of Corporate Governance

“Risk identification produces the required information for the ensuing risk management processes, so it is therefore critical that the process is accurate, thorough and complete. risk identification should not rely solely on the perceptions of a select group of managers. A thorough approach to risk identification should include the use of data analysis, business indicators, market information, loss data, scenario planning and portfolio analysis”

King III Principle 4.10


Reducing Executive’s Risk

Executives are constantly making important decisions in their field of expertise, however they occasionally find themselves being called on to participate in decisions that aren’t within their realm of experience. Since they take their responsibilities seriously and are aware of the growing director’s liabilities, these decisions make them feel uncomfortable.

In many market related decisions, the correct decision only becomes clear in hindsight. Even market “experts” can’t guide you reliably in these matters.

We work with you to formalise your decision making process using a tool which generates thousands of scenarios in real-time and presents the outcomes in easy to understand form. This provides you with an unprecedented view of the multiple future paths your company might take and gives you the comfort, that regardless of market direction after a decision has been taken, you had specific reasons to chose the course of action that you did.

Using this approach, your decisions follow as a direct result of prudent risk-management, and don’t rely on a market view.

“Risk management is inseparable from the company’s strategic and business processes.”

King III Principle 4.1


Rubicon Risk builds on the 25+ years’ experience in the banking industry of its founder

Jayson worked for a number of local SA banks as well as international banks earlier in his career. These include:

  • Standard Bank, as one of the founding members of the Gold Desk in 1992
  • Citi in 1996 to set up the local Interest Rate Derivatives business
  • RMB/FirstRand as head of the Commodities business for a number of years.
  • RMB Resources where he was the resident hedging professional for the global junior mining finance business, spanning Sydney, Melbourne, London, Johannesburg, Denver and New York.
  • Standard Chartered Bank as Head of Commodity Sales: Africa.

He has been involved in the design and execution of some of the largest hedges ever executed.

While at RMB and RMB Resources he participated in the execution of many project financing transactions, and the list to the right specifically details those where hedging was included in the debt structure.

Avgold’s Target Project (South Africa)

Crowflight Minerals’ Bucko Lake Project (Canada)

Sutter Gold’s Lincoln mine (USA)

Etruscan Resources’ Youga mine (Burkina Faso)

Apollo Gold’s Black Fox Project (Canada)

Jaguar Mining’s Turmalina Project (Brazil)

Apollo & Elkhorn JV: Montana Tunnels (USA)

Allied Gold’s Simberi Project (PNG)

Luna Gold’s Aurizona Project (Brazil)

Bass Metals’ Hellyer Mine (Australia)

Northern Star’s acquisition of the Paulsen’s mine (Australia)

Saracen’s Carouse Dam operations (Australia)

Navigator Resources’ Cockburn pit (Australia)

Our Offering

Rubicon works with executive teams to give a precise understanding of which combination of risks could threaten the financial health of an organisation. Our approach provides an unparalleled view of the company’s possible future and the effect risk mitigation will have.

By equipping management with the necessary tools, the board/finance committee can have a meaningful discussion about risk management and mitigation that doesn’t hinge on an individual’s views of market factors.

We envisage a relationship with a company with regular feedback sessions. The process would involve a level of customisation to adapt our tools and metrics to better match specific internal processes and standards.

Project financing requires alignment between a large group of interested parties. Rubicon helps with this by removing the subjectivity and opinion that is often present in the analysis of the project.

Specific debt conditions such as cash sweeps, interest holidays and financial hedges can add complexity and their interplay might lead to unintended consequences.

Rubicon’s analysis tools were developed in the Project Finance arena and can identify these consequences. The tools provide unparalleled insight into the performance of a project by detailing its financial performance over tens of thousands of price paths.

Our engagement with you would be an iterative process with multiple feedback sessions over the evolution of the project’s development plan.

Rubicon risk is an attractive consultant, providing an in-depth analysis of projects and their viability over many thousands of scenarios. This analysis is extremely successful at assisting in identifying danger zones in the project’s cashflows.

The methodology excels at comparative analysis, allowing comparison of projects competing for capital. It provides the information necessary to select the asset that best suits your investment criteria and risk appetite.

The analysis tools can also be used to assist in determining which of multiple future development plans has the highest prospect of success or which provides the greatest flexibility in volatile price environments.

Blog and Articles

Petrol price relief likely in June

The Rand strength over the last 2 weeks as well as easing international product prices points to a high likelihood of a price decrease in June, which is likely to be as high as 40c/l for petrol. Read more here: South African Petrol and Diesel Price Forecasts... read more

Small drop in fuel price in March, before taxes and levies

The strength of the Rand over the last week has provided some direction as to where fuel prices will go in March. However, our forecast does not factor in taxes and levies which will almost certainly be increased by the Fiance Minister next week, likely eroding... read more

February’s Fuel Price Hike as expected

February’s fuel price adjustments, to be announced later today, are in line with our forecasts over the last 2 weeks. Read more here: Petrol Price Forecast Press Release... read more

Rate Your Company’s Decision-Making Ability

Contact Us:

If you would like further information please call us on +27 10 900 4951, or